The language of technology moves faster than the technology itself. Every month a new term captures attention, whether it’s quantum, spatial, synthetic, generative, or something else altogether. Some of these breakthroughs reshape markets, while others fade as the technologies that underpin them drift back into research.
For investors, the hardest question is not what to follow but when to take it seriously. Commercial traction is easy to anticipate, but by the time it appears, most of the big return has already gone. The opportunity lies in reading when technology is about to move.
The Onion Model, a Tech Maturity Framework for Market Shifts
Innovation rarely moves in a straight line from lab to market. Introducing ‘The Onion Model’ which sees innovation as a series of expanding layers that turn discovery into proof, then traction, then scale.
At the centre lies R&D, surrounded by Deep Tech, Emerging, and Adopted technologies. The outer layer, Ubiquitous, forms the layer where innovation slows down.
For investors, the middle layers matter most because this is where engineering becomes product, and product begins to scale.
What follows is a break down of the 5 layers.
1. R&D – The Scientific Core
R&D is the origin of every technological wave. It is curiosity-driven, aimed at proving principles rather than products.
2. Deep Tech – The Innovators’ Layer
Deep Tech is where discovery becomes engineering. Teams focus on proving that systems can work reliably outside controlled environments.
Example: Mid-air haptics sits here today. The underlying science has moved from research to engineered prototypes, but large-scale productisation is still ahead.
Related reading: __“** Ship Real Value**”__ explores how to recognise when technical progress starts creating measurable customer value.
3. Emerging Tech – The Early Adopters’ Layer
Emerging technologies turn feasibility into viability. Products start to reach customers, and categories begin to form.
Example: Smart glasses sit here today. They have moved past novelty into practical use cases, but as regulation and shared design principles take shape, the outsized returns are already diminishing.
4. Adopted Tech – The Early Majority Layer
Adopted technologies operate within mature frameworks. Regulation, standardisation, and shared design principles have taken hold. Companies now compete on execution, brand, and incremental innovation rather than breakthrough capability.
Example: The current generation of VR and AR devices is entering this stage, where common standards and design patterns are forming around comfort, interaction, and developer ecosystems.
5. Ubiquitous and Mature – The Established Foundation
Technologies at this stage are embedded and expected. Innovation at this layer is smaller increments as areas of differentiation are hard fought.
Example: Smartphones are the clearest case. Once revolutionary, they now differ mainly in user experience, ecosystem integration, or marginal performance gains.
Putting It Together
In product design, teams usually begin with desirability, then test viability, and finally check feasibility. This order ensures products are built around what people want before deciding whether they can be made, reducing the risk of building the wrong thing.
However, The Onion Model shows that technology often evolves in the opposite direction. Technology itself usually starts by proving feasibility, then viability, then desirability.
I explore this contrast between the DVF approach and the Onion Model in Using a Story to Build a Product, which shows how narrative clarity helps teams align around progress. For a real-world example of how that shift plays out, ** Turning Deep Tech Innovation Into Product-Market Fit** examines one company’s journey from technical excellence to market adoption.
This progression through the Onion layers reveals how value builds outward from proof to product to permanence.
Feasibility dominates the inner layers.
R&D and Deep Tech prove that something can be built and made to work reliably.
Viability emerges in the middle layers.
Emerging and Adopted technologies prove that people will pay and that markets can scale.
Desirability defines the outer layers.
Mature technologies become expected infrastructure, setting the stage for the next wave of discovery.
Understanding where a technology sits within the Onion helps investors decide when the best time to invest is.
Executive Summary
- The Onion Model is a tech maturity framework for market shifts that views technology as layers of maturity, not steps in a pipeline.
- The best balance of risk and reward sits where Deep Tech meets Emerging Tech, because this is when feasibility becomes viability.
- Each layer has signals that show when progress is about to become scale.
- Technologies evolve from feasibility to viability to desirability, which is the opposite of product design best practices.
- The Onion Model is a framework that helps tech investors recognise these transitions so they can act before the market explodes.